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Old 06-02-2015, 09:33 AM   #29
Civicsman
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Freedonia!
Posts: 1,703
5 yr Member
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I could try to answer the questions above, but the questions themselves stem from faulty understanding of the situations, and I have already answered most of them several times, seemingly without being able to convey any understanding.

Take this gem as an example:
Quote:
This is a most ridiculous suggestion that coming in out of the rain is the same as swimming with a group of hungry feeding sharks. Talk about faulty understanding of statistics! That is pretty special. I suggest that she should come in out of the rain, and you take that to mean she should swim with hungry feeding sharks. WOW.
I have repeated stated that the advice of taking the lightning safety position (squatting in a ditch) is an answer to "...if you're in a dangerously exposed location, and not able escape, outrun, or shelter indoors from the storm, what are your best options?" This is apparently beyond comprehension, as KSAGAL consistently conflates "dangerously exposed and not able to escape" to ridiculous would-be analogies, such as simply going inside his house when it starts raining in his yard. A coherent discussion cannot be had when one party steadfastly clings to personal beliefs, and refuses to consider the circumstances under discussion.

This failure of understanding and imagination is seen in the position stated in KSAGAL's very first post on this topic:

Quote:
Interesting things to concern yourself with.

It is exceedingly rare to be struck by lightning, and rarer still to do this while on a segway.

I will not comment on the advice previously given, and have no reason to believe that any of it is faulty, but you may wish to consider that I do not think it particularly likely that you will get struck by lightning, even though you clearly can do things that may or may not make your odds change.

I believe it is kind of like asking for advice on how to with the lottery, or some other thing that have the odds fantastically stacked against you.
Apart from essentially dismissing Lily's concerns as insignificant, KSAGAL goes on to misrepresent the likelihood of being struck by lightning, while in a lightning storm (on Segway or not), as having fantastically low odds, similar to winning the lottery. It is this dogged failure of understanding that leads him to twist my position of being caught in a lightning storm to his position of "coming in out of the rain".

This closely-held personal belief then leads to him to conclude that "This is a most ridiculous suggestion that coming in out of the rain is the same as swimming with a group of hungry feeding sharks.", thus demonstrating again that he does not understand the basic issues, that getting caught, exposed in the open, in a lightning storm is a HIGH RISK situation. This ain't "coming in out of the rain", and general statistics about the rarity of lightning strikes (or shark bites) do not apply. As with getting shark-bit, one's risk of being struck by lightning can be MUCH higher, depending on the situation, which KSAGAL seems unwilling to consider.

Armed with the best information of lightning experts, Lily, and anyone else who happens to read this, can make their own decision (you know...they can take personal responsibility) about what action to take if they are caught in a bad situation. Armed with real information (instead of personal beliefs only) they can make their OWN decision about whether to run for it or not. They can decide for themselves whether it's better to have a little knee pain from hunkering down in a lightning storm, or to significantly increase their likelihood of being struck by lightning and having a lifetime of neurological difficulties....assuming they survive.

I believe very much in taking personal responsibility, but I also believe that not being appropriately informed before making an important decision is just dumb.

Last edited by Civicsman; 06-02-2015 at 11:26 AM..
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