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Old 05-26-2015, 12:37 PM   #19
Civicsman
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Join Date: Jul 2007
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You can see they contradict each other, because they are compiled by those who think too much, and do too little.
I realize that it is a personal choice, but I would much rather be in the camp of thinking too much, than not thinking enough. If a subject is important, then use your own brain. Take the time to read contrasting views, then do further research to see which views might be better supported by data than other views. Armed with more complete information, one has a much better chance of determining what is factual and what is merely opinion, and can consequently come to personal conclusions about what is reasonable, and what is not. If one is unable to do that, then life is already difficult, without worrying more about lightning strikes.

For example, while "Dr. Mercola" may have come up in someone's search about lightning, he is a Doctor of Osteopathy, not a specialist in lighting, or any other atmospheric phenomenon. His website is largely about medical issues. One must therefore presume that he gets his information about lightning strikes from someplace other than his own personal knowledge. Why then, would anyone use his numbers to try to make a point? (Here's a real source, from a bunch of people who "think too much". http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/research/lightning/ )

We don't know where Dr. Mercola got his statistics, but the salient point of his article is that lightning is dangerous, and one should take precautions. Regarding his statistics, Dr. Mercola himself clearly states that one must make a personal evaluation of the validity of sources of information. Of the quality of any given source, he says, [I]"... move on to the next important question: what are their qualifications? That's good advice, but not well understood by everyone.

Should one wish to take the time to do so, one could easily assess the quality of Dr. Mercola's information against that from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which has highly educated (i.e. "think too much") people on staff who study lightning, and some who compile statistics. While it is pretty obvious that NOAA likely has better info about lightning than Dr. Mercola, if the information conflicts in some important way, and one is not satisfied, then one must dig deeper still to get better answers.

Although the quotes from FEMA, Dr. Mercola, and Ron Holle (the NOAA meteorologist) may differ in some details, such as how many people are struck each year (The number of strikes per year seems to be a major sticking point for some), the fundamental message of all three quotes is that lightning can be deadly, and one should act intelligently and should take precautions so that they do not become a statistic. This overarching message is the most important part of all three quotes, and is seemingly ignored.

The posted quotes from Ron Holle, the NOAA meteorologist are particularly curious, in that they support my point of view. He supports my stated view that nearby buildings may provide some protection from lightning. Holle states that nobody can say exactly where a lightning strike will hit. That's certainly correct. It has no intelligence. It's finding it's way from cloud to earth by following the chaotic path of least resistance. If you are unlucky (or foolish enough) to be somewhere near the bottom end of that path, and "...if you are already the only tall object within 50 yards, then it doesn't matter much what you are holding."

It's clear to any sentient person that the odds of being a lightning statistic are obviously much higher if lightning is cracking in your vicinity. And if you're riding a Seg in conditions where lightning is likely, you are really tempting fate by offering yourself up as a good target.
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