Estimating the cost of the Consumer Version.

[ftropea]

OK, here is the plan.. The purpose of this thread is to work on an estimation of what the consumer version should/might go for when it's eventually revealed and released. I'll start by providing facts found on the Segway.com site and then leave you with some questions which we need to answer in order to come up with a figure.

FACTS about existing models:

I-Series

Top speed: 12.5 mph
Range: 11 - 17 miles
Passenger weight: 250 lbs (113 kg)
Segway unit weight: 83 lbs
-With two 60 cell NiMH battery packs.

E-Series

Top speed: 12.5 mph
Range: 11 - 17 miles
Passenger weight: 250 lbs (113 kg)
Extra Cargo: 75 lbs (34 kg) (Pulls a cart. N/A yet)
Segway unit weight: 95 lbs
-with two 60 cell NiMH battery packs.


Keys

Learning Mode Key (black):
Maximum speed: 6 mph (9.5 kph)
Slower turning rate

Sidewalk Operations Key (yellow):
Maximum speed: 9 mph (14.5 kph)
Medium turning rate

Open Environment Key (red):
Maximum speed: 12.5 mph (20 kph)
Most responsive turning rate


Unknowns:

Consumer Series?

Top speed: "X" mph
Range: "Y" miles
Passenger weight: 250 lbs (113 kg)
Segway unit weight: "Z" lbs

Assumptions:

1) The maximum passenger weight will be 250 lbs, just as the I and E series.

2) Unit will weigh less than the I and E series.

3) Unit will cost less than the I and E series.

Questions:

1) Will it have the same "key" speeds?

2) What will be its range?

3) What types/quantity of battery will it carry?

4) What are the estimated prices of the existing I and E series models? There are a number of prices floating out there, so let's figure out the going rates (noting the source of the price) and then establish a range. We can work with the average of those prices.

5) Why does the E series weigh more than the I series when both units seem to have the same amount of batteries? We know the E series can carry more (pull a cart with 75lbs of cargo) but where are the technical differences (inside guts) that differentiate between these two models?


Well, it's something to work on. You are all welcome to contribute and work on the estimate along with me.


Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[muckle]

A minor quibble about the order you've got listed:

the I series ALWAYS comes before the E series (except after the C series)!

[ftropea]

Fine, I fixed it..

Darn you Muckle! Such a stickler for details :P


Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[zeppo123]

Before we have seen the top speed for the consumer model as 10 mph. We know when they were first introduced the non comercial models were said to go 17 mph. I wonder if the motors for the consumer model will only go 10 mph even if not restricted by regulation.

[baantjer]

It used to be on their website, but the Web Archive doesn't have it

[charmed]

Perhaps they will tailor the final (but introductory) consumer model specs to the outcome of their legislative efforts? The model shown on the website isn't necessarily what we will end up seeing.

[Seg-wager]

quote:the I series ALWAYS comes before the E series (except after the C series)!

heheh, that was cute :D

[ftropea]

OK, perhaps we could look at the legislation floating around out there for clues. What has the average speed on sidewalks been in those bills? 8, 10, 12mph?

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[4Seg]

Segway Flyer I found. http://www.stlsegway.com/images/SegStats.jpg

If we could only be resellers...

See the Segway clips! http://www.stlsegway.com/movies

[Casey]

quote:What has the average speed on sidewalks been in those bills? 8, 10, 12mph?


I have an Excel spread sheet giving this information and a lot more through part of July. But I can't figure out how to make it usable in another form that I can upload.

Here's the part with the speeds: quote:State Bill # Bill Status Max Segway Speed Limit

AK SB 100 Enacted 7/5/02 15 MPH
AL HB 84 Indefinitely postponed 20 MPH
AL SB 74 In Committee 20 MPH
AZ HB 2497 Passed House 15 MPH
AZ SB 1193 Enacted 4/4/02 15 MPH
CA SB 1918 Passed third reading. To Senate 20 MPH
CT SB 422 Failed joint favorable deadline Restricted to 15 MPH
FL SB 2454 Died in messages 20 MPH
GA SB 397 Passed House 7 MPH(Sidewalk) 15 MPH(Elsewhere)
HI SB 2601 In Committee Restricted to 8 MPH on sidewalk

IA SF 2192 Enacted 4/4/02 20 MPH
ID HB 550 Enacted 3/21/02 15 MPH
IL HB 5610 Governor placed calendar amendatory veto 20 MPH
IN SB 401 Enacted 3/28/02 20 MPH
KS HB 2663 Enacted 4/1/02 15 MPH
MD HB 869 Passed Senate Restricted to 15 MPH

MI SB 1016 In Committee 20 MPH
MN HB 2882 Enacted 3/26/02 15 MPH
MN SB 3122 In Committee 15 MPH
MO HB 1746 In Committee 20 MPH
MO SB 1098 Voted do pass by Senate Trans. Committee 20 MPH
NE LB 976 Provisions amended into LB 1105 by AM3395 20 MPH

NE LB 1105 Enacted 4/19/02 20 MPH
NH SB 385 Enacted 2/15/02 Restricted to 15 MPH
NJ AB 3984 Enacted 1/8/02 20 MPH
NM HB 298 Enacted 3/4/02 20 MPH
OH HB 501 Reported out of committee 20 MPH

OH SB 231 In Committee 20 MPH

OK SB 1473 Enacted 4/11/02 20 MPH
PA HB 2202 In Committee 15 MPH

PA SB 1225 Removed from table 15 MPH

RI HB 7271 In Committee 15 MPH
RI SB 2585 In Committee 15 MPH
SC HB 4954 In Committee Restricted to 15 MPH
SD HB 1211 Enacted 2/24/02 15 MPH
TN HB 2539 To Governor 20 MPH
TN SB 2302 In Committee 20 MPH
VA HB 905 Enacted 3/27/02 15 MPH
VT SB 297 Enacted 5/1/02 Restricted to 8 MPH on sidewalk
WA HB 2417 In Committee 20 MPH
WA SB 6316 Enacted 3/29/02 20 MPH
WI AB 782 Failed to pass pursuant to Senate joint resolution 1 15 MPH

WI SB 393 Enacted 4/18/02 15 MPH
WV SB 682 Enacted 3/18/02 20 MPH
WV HB 4514 Tabled 20 MPH

Blank=Not addressed in legislation


And if yo click on "Segway Safety.xls" you can view the whole thing in a spreadsheet form.

http://www.injurycenter.org/ccri/centers/injuryResearch/segway/main.cfm



Frank

[Casey]

Here is the bill status report through 8/27/02.

quote:Current Status of Segway Legislation (As of 8/27/02)
Enacted (27) ------------------------------Died (13)
AK SB 100 (7/5/02) ------------------------AL SB 74
AZ SB 1193 (4/4/02) -----------------------AL HB 84
DE HB 473 (6/30/02) -----------------------CT SB 422
IA SF 2192 (4/4/02) -----------------------FL SB 2454
ID HB 550 (3/21/02) -----------------------GA SB 397
IN SB 401 (3/28/02) -----------------------HI HB 2031
KS HB 2663 (4/1/02) -----------------------HI SB 2601
MD HB 869 (5/16/02) -----------------------MO HB 1746
MI SB 1016 (7/2/02) -----------------------MO SB 1098
MN HB 2882 (3/26/02) ----------------------MN SB 3122
NE LB 1105 (4/19/02) ----------------------WA HB 2417
NH SB 385 (2/15/02) -----------------------WI AB 782
NJ AB 3984 (1/8/02) -----------------------WV HB 4514
NM HB 298 (3/4/02)
OH SB 231 (7/25/02) -------------------In Committee (4)
OK SB 1473 (4/11/02)
PA SB 1225 (7/4/02) -----------------------AZ HB 2497
RI HB 7271 (6/15/02) ----------------------MA HB 5127
RI SB 2585 (6/28/02) ----------------------NC SB 1144
SC HB 4954 (6/5/02) -----------------------NJ A 2471
SD HB 1211 (2/24/02)
TN HB 2539 (5/8/02) -----------------------Miscellaneous (2)
VA HB 905 (3/27/02)
VT SB 297 (5/1/02) ------------------CA SB 1918 (Passed third
WA SB 6316 (3/29/02) ------------------reading. To Senate)
WI SB 393 (4/18/02) -----------------IL HB 5610 (Governor placed
WV SB 682 (4/24/02) ------------------calendar amendatory veto)

Frank

[4Seg]

If you email me the XSL sheet, I will be glad to create an HTML file and give it to SC Admin.

If we could only be resellers...

See the Segway clips! http://www.stlsegway.com/movies

[charmed]

quote:Originally posted by 4SegwayAdmin

Segway Flyer I found. http://www.stlsegway.com/images/SegStats.jpg

If we could only be resellers...

See the Segway clips! http://www.stlsegway.com/movies


Thanks, 4Segway. Those numbers look pretty definitive.

Weight- 69 lbs.

Top speed- 10 mph.

Range- 9 to 14 miles.

Payload- 250 lb.

Platform Height- 6" (2" lower than commercial models)

Platform size- 16X21" (3" narrower than the commercial models)

Optimized- 'densest environments'.



Also, from the Union Leader today, more info on commercial pricing:

http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_show.html?article=14395
-------------
"A Segway costs $4,000 to $5,000, depending on the features....."


These figures are the lowest I've seen for the commercial models. Bodes well that the personal models will be offered for a much more reasonable price than some of the figures we have seen.

[ftropea]

Ok, let's try to work with these figures:

Weight - 69 lbs. (17% lighter than I series (83 lbs) - 27% lighter than the E series (95 lbs))

Top speed- 10 mph. (20% slower than the I and E series)

Range- 9 to 14 miles. (18% less range than I and E (11-17 miles))

Payload- 250 lb. (Same payload as the I series)

Platform Height- 6" (2" lower than commercial models)

Platform size- 16X21" (3" narrower than the commercial models)

Optimized- 'densest environments'.


So from these numbers, we're looking at a slightly scaled down version that's anywhere from 17% - 20% "less capable" than it's industrial big brothers. However, that doesn't neccessarily equate to a 17% - 20% drop in price. It could be more - it could be less. I assume the personal version will use the same gyroscopes.. same tech (DSPs.. circuit board design.. etc.) as the commerical models.

But most likely, the consumer/personal version will also have:

1) Less batteries (doesn't need the same sized bank)
2) Smaller wheels (small footprint.. smaller profile device)
3) Less materials in chasis
4) Slightly less rugged design?

So assuming all this, how would one begin to estimate the cost of the consumer/personal version? Anyone want to take a stab?

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[n/a]

quote:So assuming all this, how would one begin to estimate the cost of the consumer/personal version? Anyone want to take a stab?

Figuring out what componets the consumer versions will have is one way of estimating costs. Another is to use speculate on what the market will bear. My impression is that people will not want to pay more than around $2000. Perhaps the early adopters will pay $3000. If we look at the trend with the commercial models, they went from around 10K down to 4K in about half a year. Perhaps we will see a similar development with the consumer models. We know that Segway LLC had some troubles with setting the prices. They may decide to experiment some more with the consumer model.

Factors I would consider before deciding on how much I would be willing to pay for one: How usefull is a Segway going to be for me? Will I be allowed to use it on sidewalks and inside of buildings? Will there be parking/storage/recharging facilities readily available? Will people look at me with irritation or interest when I ride on one? Will they laugh at me or admire my new vehicle? Will I look dorky or respectable? Will still be fun to ride when the novelty wears off?

[ftropea]

Those are important factors.. I'll add some of my own:

I would prefer the Segway-HT consumer version to be much lighter than the industrial versions we've seen. I want to be able to pick one up and hurry down a couple of flights of stairs, not roll it down step-by-step. It should be designed to be more "wearable" than the commercial version we've seen. Smaller wheels.. lower profile.. tighter to the ankles and feet. Make it truly something you can "wear" - like sneakers - or slip into, like a pair of slippers. Make it more personal and less intrusive.

I hope it's designed with power upgrades in mind. I recall that an insider once wrote over at TIQ that the current models wouldn't be able to incorporate a Stirling. They haven't been designed with them in mind. I'd like the consumer version to be powerplant upgradable, so even if we're talking about a new and lightweight battery - I can just swap the newer model in.

One special wish:

(This isn't a typical consumer wish)
I'd like a PC interface (Serial/USB/Firewire/whatever) to the unit so I can begin "playing" with it - connecting a laptop.. a few sensors and begin working on some simple robotic applications. Anything that avoids having to open the unit up and soldering/clipping wires to the appropriate locations ;)

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[n/a]

quote:Originally posted by ftropea

Those are important factors.. I'll add some of my own:

I would prefer the Segway-HT consumer version to be much lighter than the industrial versions we've seen. I want to be able to pick one up and hurry down a couple of flights of stairs, not roll it down step-by-step.

I think portability will be essential if it is to be used in conjuction with other modes of transport. A lot of people will have troubles hoisting their Segways into the trunks of cars, on to trains and busses, up and down stairs, over barriers. Ramps are not a viable short term solution. But then they shouldt weigh more than the average bike?

quote:I hope it's designed with power upgrades in mind. I recall that an insider once wrote over at TIQ that the current models wouldn't be able to incorporate a Stirling. They haven't been designed with them in mind. I'd like the consumer version to be powerplant upgradable, so even if we're talking about a new and lightweight battery - I can just swap the newer model in.

My impression/guess/hope is that the Stirling will be fastened onto the base of the shaft. It will be removeable and will have multiple functions.

quote:
I'd like a PC interface (Serial/USB/Firewire/whatever) to the unit so I can begin "playing" with it - connecting a laptop.. a few sensors and begin working on some simple robotic applications...

I think this sort of application would be a lot of fun for a lot of people and very usefull for others. Being able to play with reprogramming Segway's speed and manouverability could raise safety issues though.

I would be surprised if robotic applications will not be made available to consumers in the not to distant future. If it does not happen, it will be because of the potential misuse by terrorists and criminals. I imagine a remotely controlled Segway loaded with explosives being used to commit a bank robbery for example. Could kids terrorize a neighbourhood by having their remotely controlled Segways zooming around on streets and sidewalks?

[dupa]

When I did the informal Gary Bridge interview last month, that was the big item I got out of him. He said that like computers(he came from IBM), they eventually hoped that the Segway could down as low as $1300. My original question was if when the consumer model was finally released, would they still be sticking with the most often-heard price...$3000. He said they hoped so, and they would hopefully lower it to that other price later, if possible.

Also, when I first brought this subject up, the first thing he went to was the high cost of the gyro's and pointed out that the only people using them now were Segway and the space industry.

[don c.]

quote:Originally posted by dupa

When I did the informal Gary Bridge interview last month, that was the big item I got out of him. He said that like computers(he came from IBM), they eventually hoped that the Segway could down as low as $1300. My original question was if when the consumer model was finally released, would they still be sticking with the most often-heard price...$3000. He said they hoped so, and they would hopefully lower it to that other price later, if possible.

Also, when I first brought this subject up, the first thing he went to was the high cost of the gyro's and pointed out that the only people using them now were Segway and the space industry.



The following article seems to disagree:

http://www.sensorsmag.com/articles/0202/36/main.shtml

[dupa]

Don, I'm not an engineer and have no idea if those are the same things. I'm just passing on what I was told from someone at the top from Segway(who granted, is in marketing, not engineering).

[don c.]

quote:Originally posted by dupa

Don, I'm not an engineer and have no idea if those are the same things. I'm just passing on what I was told from someone at the top from Segway(who granted, is in marketing, not engineering).


They are the same thing, perhaps different manufacturers. Refer to the following article:

http://www.instat.com/infoalert.asp?Volname=Volume%20%23%2040#item2

MEMS – Scooting Into Transportation

"The recent introduction of the Segway Human Transporter (a self-balancing scooter that has been referred to by it’s codenames “Ginger” and “IT” for the past year) by inventor Dean Kaman has created a buzz in regard to this revolutionary new means of transportation. By merely leaning in a particular direction, the two-wheeled, battery-powered unit responds by moving forward, backward, around a corner, down a ramp, etc. What allow the scooter to work are five gyroscopes – inertial sensors that measure tilt by means of rotation. These devices monitor rider movement so that the scooter will go in whatever direction you want, as well as help keep the unit upright. These sensors are so precise that travel with this device will be largely intuitive.

While much of the press has focused on the scooter as a consumer product (and raised subsequent concerns about pedestrian safety), the technology has far-reaching implications in many other industries. It’s really more conducive for use in large corporate campuses and factories – anyplace where people need to move from one place to another over considerable distances - or by people who need to walk a lot. In fact, the postal service has already contracted for the test use of the scooter for use by mail delivery personnel in certain areas. And testing is already well underway by Amazon.com, FedEx, Delphi Automotive, and Michelin Tire for use in their warehouses. In addition, under some circumstances, the scooter could have a significant impact on improved mobility of the disabled.

The fact that the gyroscopes themselves are MEMS sensors is very exciting for the MEMS industry. While MEMS gyros have been utilized in small volume automotive, aerospace, and military applications for some time, such a high profile end-use is good reason to cheer for two reasons: first, it raises the profile of the technology as a whole; and second, it may result in scientists and engineers re-thinking the use of MEMS technology in many more large-scale applications."

[dupa]

Nice find Don, but actually it reinforces just what I said. Though it makes clear they are used in other industries, the article you found states that up until now they have "been utilized in small volume,"....and "such a high profile end-use is good reason to cheer". Am I missing something here?

[ftropea]

Well, I think this really is the whole point...

From the article Don C. posted, "The fact that the gyroscopes themselves are MEMS sensors is very exciting for the MEMS industry. While MEMS gyros have been utilized in small volume automotive, aerospace, and military applications for some time, such a high profile end-use is good reason to cheer for two reasons: first, it raises the profile of the technology as a whole; and second, it may result in scientists and engineers re-thinking the use of MEMS technology in many more large-scale applications."


High volume production, combined with the decreasing cost of processors, should all equate to seeing the price drop on the consumer version as time goes by. So it sounds like the article does indeed reinforce Dupa's claim (actually Gary Bridge's.)

The other point is this...

What other device(s) use the SAME gyros as the Segway-HT. We're not talking about one specific sensor when you say MEMS. You're talking about a technology. So what about the particular MEMS gyro inside the Segway-HT? Would you find it in your standard auto? Probably not. It sounds like the other places you typically find that particular sensor are in aerospace applications.

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[don c.]

quote:Originally posted by dupa

Nice find Don, but actually it reinforces just what I said. Though it makes clear they are used in other industries, the article you found states that up until now they have "been utilized in small volume,"....and "such a high profile end-use is good reason to cheer". Am I missing something here?


Did you read the above link?

http://www.sensorsmag.com/articles/0202/36/main.shtml

"Considered by most engineers as cutting-edge or fringe technology, MEMS sensors have been embraced by the automotive industry in its quest to improve performance, reduce cost, and enhance the reliability of the family sedan. In fact, hundreds of millions of MEMS sensors have been used in automobiles over the past decade."

Granted, the Segway's gyro's were designed and configured by Silicon Sensing Systems specifically for that application, as virtually any large scale production system would be.

[ftropea]

Saying "MEMS Sensors" is like saying "Pentium Chips."

There are millions of Pentium chips out there, but some are first generation 60 and 66mhz versions.. and some are the newer P4 mutli-ghz versions. As you pointed out Don, the Segway-HT uses a particular MEMS gyro (an array of 5) that, from what we currently understand, is only used in aerospace applications and in the Segway-HT - not in automobiles.

MEMS technology is definitely evolving. The cost of the MEMS gyro in the Segway-HT should come down as production of that particular part increases.

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[Ryan93]

OK I think the Segway is REALLY cool... But I would rather cruise around on an iBOT. Not only can it balance on 2 wheel but it can put you to eye level, and go up stairs. But with my GREAT paycheck from WALMART I dont think Im gonna have the money for either a Segway or an iBOT.

-Ryan

[ftropea]

Bumping this for Eddie to do his cost estimate for the "p series" as described in this thread.

If you can do this Eddie - that would be great!

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[Eddie]

Hi Frank,
I'm not sure you are going to like what I have to say on the topic but here goes.
Assuming the cost of manufacture, parts and labor, for an 'I' series is about half of the retail price and the labor portion constitutes 15% or $750 that means there is 35% or about $1750 in parts.

Going quick and dirty, (here is what you won't like) this makes a Segway about $20.60 /lb which can be fairly easily brought down near $15 /lb. Know where I'm going next? You bet, simple math. A P-series at say 65 lb makes for $975 in parts add the $750 labor and double and you have $3500.

The assumptions I make may appear disturbing but I will explain. I assume a current volume of about 24,000 units annually, why because I don't see anyone with poster numbers over 2000 and almost a month has passed since they started. Does this matter? not really, the downward steps happen with the number of zeros, there isn't much difference between 25k and 75k units.

It is too complex without more info to try and estimate the benefits of using the same components across lines to up the buying volume or reducing material cost. Easy example, use the same battery packs and buy more of them letting volume drive the cost down or change from 60 cell packs to 50 cells and give up a little power and range which then allows for cheaper motors and controllers? Simple rule - hands off. Sad but true, the less it is touched by hands the less it costs.

[steve1501]

Eddie - In reading all of these posts, everyone is assuming that when production increases, the price drops. In technology, this is the usual case, but a Segway is not a typical mode of transportation. Maybe there will be an entry level model of the Segway, but in an initial marketing of an item, you do not want to set a price point so high that it will scare off your market, and you do not want to set a price point so low that demand exceeds production.

Credit Suisse is Dean's venture partner, and believe me, the bean counters used higher math and sophisticated marketing strategies in arriving at a price. I do not see the price coming down unless there is an entry level model released, but I hope for others sake that I am proven wrong. I am happy with my purchase, and I am not complaining about the price.

Steve

[Eddie]

Hi Steve,
I was just trying to show the price isn't merely pulled out of the air and has limits given certain assumptions in the "about the price" thread. This was an attempt to figure out what the smaller P-series might cost when it arrives. I did cost reduction work a few years ago prior to getting .com cost reduced myself. It's turned out ok, I now get a company car and the fact that it's a hybrid is great given my passion for all things tech. Unfortunately it will mean waiting for a price drop or the used Segway market.

Enjoy the ride,
Ed

[Deviant]

This is an old thread, so maybe there is more info out on the P model now that I haven't seen.

I want to propose that the range reduction in the P series may be due to using NiCad rather than NiMH batteries. I read somewhere (probably on the Seg site) that HTs may contain either. NiCads hold less energy than NiMH by weight, but are much cheaper. If you replace the NiMH batteries with NiCads of the same weight, range diminishes. If the new batteries are lighter, then a much shorter range.