Segway: Looking into the future

[wenshidi]

Although it is going to be some time before I am scooting around Tiananmen Square on a Segway, I have been doing a lot of reading on the subject and would like to see what others think this new device holds for the future.

1. A YOWUSA article suggests that Segway technology will quickly converge with advances in robotics to make mobile home appliances much more common. They give Rosie the Maid as a possible example. Other Non-US readers unfamiliar with the Jetsons, should check out the article to see what they are talking about.

2. The Houston Chronicle talks about the possibility of a two person Segway.

3. They also talk about Segway racing and other developments. How long before we see a rough terrain version, I wonder? What other Segway sports are on the horizon? Segway polo? Segway downhill using just the gyros without the motor?

4. ABC News discusses security problems and how easy it will be to scoop these things up onto the back of a truck. They wonder who is lined up to build Segway bike racks.

5. Myself, I am interested in finding out the results of the postal worker test runs. As we become more sharing orientated through the different P2P networks and services like Ebay prosper, will delivery prices drop thanks to Segways. Could we envision a book sharing network where sharers only had to pay say two dollars to have a special book package delivered. Would an increased volume enable even greater price reductions?

6. How far are prices set to fall in the long term? Will they be kept artificially high a la Microsoft or can we envisage truly acceptable prices very soon? How did the costs of the first VCRs compare to current models? How about PCs?

7. What is everybody else expecting from the future?

Chris
Beijing

[Brooster]

Great post Chris, and welcome to the board. On my way to work, so I can't answer more.


Brooster

[ftropea]

Wenshidi wrote:

"1. A YOWUSA article suggests that Segway technology will quickly converge with advances in robotics to make mobile home appliances much more common. They give Rosie the Maid as a possible example. Other Non-US readers unfamiliar with the Jetsons, should check out the article to see what they are talking about."

One thing that impresses me about the Segway-HT is its balancing tech. Ever watch a documentary about robots? They move slow and cautiously throughout controlled environment. The walking ones, like Honda's robot that walks like a human, is so unveliebably expensive that I doubt we'll see them in homes, or in the public, anytime soon.

Then there is the possibility of mounting a robot arm or some benchtop robot on a Segway-HT. It's like Dean Kamen invented "Rosie the Robot's" wheels. You can mount 250+ pounds of equipment on the Segway's platform. Let's say a latop, robot arm, extra batters, a GPS system, some camera and feedback sensors - plus a really clever application to control it all - and bingo! You've got a household robot.

And you don't have to worry about it falling down on the dog or not being able to move around your home, or even outside - over grass, dirt or gravel - Kamen's Segway-HT has already been designed to handle all that.

I firmly believe that the Segway-HT is an incredibly versatile platform for future developments in robotics. To me, it's like the first PC for the robotics industry.

All they need to do is add a PC interface and even I'm good to go. I have enough know-how to play.. just give me the toys :)

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[n/a]

Nice posting wenshidi.
quote:6. How far are prices set to fall in the long term? Will they be kept artificially high a la Microsoft or can we envisage truly acceptable prices very soon? How did the costs of the first VCRs compare to current models? How about PCs?

That is the question I am most concered with at this time. Since Kamen talked about its uses in the third world, I expect some drastic drop in prices within the space of a few years, even though he says things to the contrary. I think he has to say those things for obvious reasons.

[ftropea]

Well, the Segway-HT is packed with tech. It uses advanced motors, batteries, gyros and computer systems. Most of the components were designed just for the Segway-HT... and that fact impacts the Segway-HT's cost.

Also, the "i series" is a high performance machine. Segway might eventually release a lower performance model and sell it for a lot less. However, I wouldn't expect a price drop for the "i series" until they release a lower performance model. Perhaps they'll do exactly that the summer/fall of '03.

Or, they can keep the price fixed and just improve the specs of the "I series."

For example, they could eventually discontinue the i167 and release an i240 with better range, lighter weight, maybe with an onboard Stirling charge or some other advances.

I think Segway LLC should run two lines of products. High performance models which work great on different terrains and lower performance, inner city consumer models which work fine on sidewalks and modern city infrastructure.

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[n/a]

quote:I think Segway LLC should run two lines of products. High performance models which work great on different terrains and lower performance, inner city consumer models which work fine on sidewalks and modern city infrastructure.

I would also like to see an extreme sports model, very fast, very powerful, very rugged. The model I would expect that the military is trying out. The police would also want it.

[JohnM]

Frank & Lawrence,
Both of you seem to see a future where Segway LLC will be the sole manufacturer of devices conforming to the EPAMD definition. If that is the case, there will be no incentive to lower prices as long as they can find buyers who are willing to shell out $4950 a pop. Market demand will set the price and if that price is high enough to make a profit, why lower it? Unless DK and his financial backers become great humanitarians and want Segways to be affordable to everyone on the planet, they have no great incentive to charge less.

My question to both of you is why don't you see competition lowering the price? If Segway is successful there will be competitive devices produced by other companies. If there is money to be made, it will happen. The devices may not be duplicates of Segway, they may not use the same technology, but if they meet the EPAMD definition for sidewalk use (or the makers can spend the money to have the laws changed) they will be made and at a competitive price. VCR prices fell because every electronics manufacturer on earth started to knock out cheaper and cheaper VHS machines in order to get their share of the market. Even Sony had to scrap their superior Betamax system in order stay in the game. This is Business 101 stuff.

The bigger question is will Segway LLC be able to survive if the big boys get into the game? If Segway really takes off, can a little company in New Hampshire run by a quirky inventor hope to remain a player for long? Will Segway be the Betamax of EPAMDs?

Runnin' with the Big Dogs

[ftropea]

JohnM wrote: "Both of you seem to see a future where Segway LLC will be the sole manufacturer of devices conforming to the EPAMD definition."

JohnM, I know you read what I posted but I'm not sure how to came to that conslusion.

I never said there wouldn't be or couldn't be competition - or that competition would be a bad thing. It's common sense that competition can help to drive prices down. It's a motivating factor, without a doubt. Sometimes it even helps promote innovation - pitting companies against one another, challenging each other with advancement after advancement.

When and if these other companies do get into the game, you would have to imagine them seeing some opportunity to take advantage of (a good reason to enter the market)- a wanting market - and that's also a good thing. We'd probably see more lobbying activity.. more advertisements and news coverage (articles).. open and direct comparisons between the Segway-HT and the "X-machine" (whatever they call it).. and that's also a good thing.

However, I was speaking about something else JohnM. I see the possibility of a lower cost version of the Segway-HT. Perhaps with a little less redundancy.. less powerful... perhaps really limited to paved, reasonably flat surfaces.. (limited to city infrastructure.)

The "i series" could be the "top of the line" series for Segway LLC. I was talking about a more mainstream consumer version...

However, I do agree with your major points. As to whether or not Segway will survive competition, I do believe that Kamen and Co. have some of the best engineers working for them... that they are dedicated, creative and resourceful people.. and that as long as they don't try to run the companies themselves, and continue to hire capable and competant business people, they'll be fine. They have a nice headstart in this area... and it's up to them to take advantage of all the media attention they've already received. Can they fail? Definitely.. will they? In my heart, I don't think they will.

Regards,

Frank A. Tropea

[jwood]

quote:Originally posted by ftropea

... I think Segway LLC should run two lines of products. High performance models which work great on different terrains and lower performance, inner city consumer models which work fine on sidewalks and modern city infrastructure. ...


Interesting, but after riding the i167, I can't image using a 'lesser' model outdoors. Even in the best city infrastructure, riders will be confronted with bumps, potholes, curbs etc. I think the current i-series wheels and power will be needed for any outdoor application. I see the P-series as pretty much an indoor machine.