Electric, Porsche, Bughatti, in the same sentence?

[Sal]

Apparently the Wrightspeed X1 is on par with the fastest cars on the planet, with a calculated fuel effiency of 170mpg:

http://wrightspeed.com/x1.html

http://www.engadget.com/2006/05/07/wrightspeed-x1-electric-now-among-worlds-fastest-cars/

-Sal

[GyroGo]

Segway Inc. would do well to think about the whole EV market. Dynamic stabilization may not be the most marketable of all their valuable expertise. Perhaps Segway should consider other EV's that don't necessarily utilize dynamic stabilization.


More on Ian Wright:
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/04/technology/business2_wrightspeed/

[citivolus]

I think it is interesting to note that for January the national electric rate was $0.0955/kW•hr(1). Using the CARB conversion on the Wrightspeed site of 33,705 W•hr/gallon the price of electricity is equivalent to $3.219/gallon. Of course that is quickly offset if one is getting 170 empg*... or is it?

Using a gasoline price of $2.919(2) and the average new car/truck on the street at 25.2 mpg(3), the fuel cost per mile works out as 8.633 miles/$ for the average car and 52.811 miles/$ for the X1. Given the average cost of a new car of $28,400(4) and an estimated initial cost of $100,000 for the X1, the equal cost point occurs at 738,921 miles! On the other hand, compared to the competition in the performance market and... uh, well a Ferrari is a Ferrari but that's about it.

Running some more numbers and using a useful life of 200,000 miles the capital cost of an X1 or equivalent needs to drop to about $47,800 with all other things being equal in order to economically justify the purchase to the mass market. That said, I don't see any technical reason why the price couldn't get close to that number and I don't see the price of gasoline dropping substantially to make such a purchase viable.

So, who wants to give me $100k for an X1? I promise to give you the first ride.

*empg = electrical miles per gallon or equivalent miles per gallon?

(1) http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/epm_sum.html
(2) http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html
(3) Large (1.4 MB) pdf file http://www.nhtsa.dot.gov/staticfiles/DOT/NHTSA/Vehicle%20Safety/Articles/Associated%20Files/SummaryFuelEconomyPerformance-2005.pdf
(4) http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/conline/pubs/autos/newcar.htm

[mario-ramos]

Eletricity X Oil:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVawYlcQFD4&search=Wrightspeed%20X1

[Sal]

Apparently, the Wrightspeed is based on the Ariel Atom.

http://www.arielmotor.co.uk/

and a video of the awesome Atom... hosted by, I think the same arrogant guy who featured our own Tom (Florida Everglides) in a story.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fpfv8FsNQo

-Sal

[GyroGo]

citivolus:

Brand new technology should cost more; R&D has not been amortized yet, R&D costs continue at a high rate, the marketplace does not yet know it wants the product so demand is still low, and efficiencies in manufacturing are yet to come.

Personally, I'd rather send $1.75 to a coal miner in West Virginia than $1.00 to Iran to help them develop nuclear weapons. Maybe that's just me, and it's not that I have money to burn either.

[citivolus]

Gary,

I agree with you 100%. I understand the costs associated with R&D and that these first models are going to be very expensive. I think Ian Wright is pretty smart to select the high dollar performance market first because he can compete very well there as I was able to show in my first analysis. My secondary analysis shows that the general market isn't as far off as on might expect if only looking at the initial numbers.

I guess what I failed to do was properly convey my intent. I was trying to demonstrate that someone performing the economic analysis, at the current costs, may easily come to the conclusion, when looking at the initial 700k+ mile estimate, that it would be impossible to reach a price that would be reasonable to the average consumer. The truth is that the mass market isn't that far off because reducing the performance specs yields cheaper power electronics, motors, etc.

5 years ago, one of the people I worked with gave me a similar argument when I bought my Insight saying that it would take forever to pay back the "premium" but now 90k miles later it has done just that. If Mr. Wright can finance the R&D from the Ferrari crowd, I think that is a good approach. In my opinion it is certainly better than going with the eco-superstar(1) market and long term down payments to finance the venture.

(1) http://www.treehugger.com/files/2005/11/george_clooneys_1.php

[GyroGo]

Gary,

I guess what I failed to do was properly convey my intent.

citivolus,

I don't know that you failed. :)

My response was more out of conversation than argument. I wasn't really disagreeing with your points (and I just accepted your math at face value, I didn't do my own).

[Desert_Seg]

I thiinto consid a couple of points we haven't taken into consideration, or maybe we have and I just overlooked them.

1. Developing a high-speed, high-torque car (engine) will cost more than an average speed, average torque car. Therefore, mass production of a the "standard" (normal?) version of the car should be significantly cheaper.

2. Dollar value of running said "standard" car could be less than an equal gas-powered car but a lot depends on the framework around the car. If it is the same steel cage and the like, insurance and regulations will kill the price. Yet if Ian (or GM or Ford, or whomever) is able to package it in a "standard" gas powered car frame, you rapidly bring down operating costs.

I think that Ian is on to something great and hope he gets the funding to develop the mass-market version, and 100 mpc (miles per charge) just ain't enough!

Steven

[Desert_Seg]

BTW, in all my readings about the X1 I don't remember seeing the name Valence anywhere as a potential L-Ion supplier.

Did anybody else see it and did y'all notice the other L-Ion dedicated manus?

Steven

[citivolus]

According to this article- http://www.almanacnews.com/story.php?story_id=1129 -he designed his own batteries.

[Desert_Seg]

My understanding is that he is using existing batteries but designed his own battery pack and "tie-in" technology.

Steven