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Old 02-08-2009, 06:47 PM   #11
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Electric vehicles are fine in town for short journeys but they just are not there yet (or possibly ever) for long distances. Let me give you a very simple example: The batteries of a Seg store about 1 Kw.h of energy.and they weigh just over 10 kg. The most efficient internal combustion engines, large 2 stroke diesels as used in ocean going ships or diesel power stations produce 1 Kw.h of work from about 183 grams of fuel. If we call that 200 gms, we have a ratio of weight to stored energy that is some 50 times better for the chemical fuel powered system. So for every pound of fuel, you need 50 pounds of battery! Of course a car is nowhere near this efficient but the numbers still illustrate the size of the problem. This is why (as well as cost) the Chevy Volt needs a gas engine as well as batteries, unless of course you are going to tow a large trailer full of lithium ion cells. For commuting or short in town trips, battery may well be best but it will be a while before you can do a trip that lasts all day. Even the Tesla, a highly modified Lotus Elise carrying an enormous weight of batteries can barely run for 3 hours at freeway speeds. The electric Mini carries 260Kg of batteries, loses half its seats and still has a range of only 150 miles and that is not at highway speed!
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Old 02-08-2009, 07:30 PM   #12
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Electric vehicles are fine in town for short journeys but they just are not there yet (or possibly ever) for long distances. Let me give you a very simple example: The batteries of a Seg store about 1 Kw.h of energy.and they weigh just over 10 kg. The most efficient internal combustion engines, large 2 stroke diesels as used in ocean going ships or diesel power stations produce 1 Kw.h of work from about 183 grams of fuel. If we call that 200 gms, we have a ratio of weight to stored energy that is some 50 times better for the chemical fuel powered system. So for every pound of fuel, you need 50 pounds of battery! Of course a car is nowhere near this efficient but the numbers still illustrate the size of the problem. This is why (as well as cost) the Chevy Volt needs a gas engine as well as batteries, unless of course you are going to tow a large trailer full of lithium ion cells. For commuting or short in town trips, battery may well be best but it will be a while before you can do a trip that lasts all day. Even the Tesla, a highly modified Lotus Elise carrying an enormous weight of batteries can barely run for 3 hours at freeway speeds. The electric Mini carries 260Kg of batteries, loses half its seats and still has a range of only 150 miles and that is not at highway speed!
All true -- and usually irrelevant. Most trips are short. Most travel is short-to-medium short. Most people don't exceed the range of a Tesla very often.

But with no alternatives, most people have to consider the rare case where it IS relevant. Make it easy to rent a car for those rare occasion, and use other means the rest of the time, and people can save serious $$$.

We don't really need as many, and as large, a fleet of vehicles as we operate in this country. We're just set up to do it this way. And as long as it's based on individual decisions, when individuals don't decide about putting their $$$ into automobile roads vs alternatives -- it will change very, very slowly indeed.

We need to retool our transportation modality and infrastructure to be more sustainable and economical. That doesn't include an ever-growing fleet of ever-larger single-occupant vehicles, ad infinitum. It's some more rational mix, and I predict that we are near the peak of number of individual petroleum-powered cars in this country. Population growth will drive the total higher for a while. Efficiency improvements will extend the curve a bit.

But in the end, it's not a sustainable model. Propping up the automobile industry without accommodating this reality isn't wise.

I think we need to invest (and I mean invest, not give away without concern for return) in a modality shift for our transportation industry, and try to recapture the world-wide initiative with a better way.

Unfortunately, it means government investment right now, because that's the only place where money can come from to be placed at risk in new efforts -- or even well-established ones. But at least, we can approach it as an investment, demanding a return - so the only way for people taking those stimulus dollars can hope to get rich is by actually producing, rather than just taking the dollars and doing the same-old.

Paying people to make cars nobody buys would be a disaster. Paying people to buy cars would be a disaster. Doing nothing would be a disaster.

But a recession is the perfect time to invest. Resources (human and physical) are more readily available. People will give you better return on your dollars. Assets are available at reduced cost. You just have to (1) get ahold of the money, which is hard in a recession, and (2) stay afloat cash-flow wise, also hard in a recession.
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Old 02-08-2009, 08:49 PM   #13
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Thank you, Isidore and Bob Kerns for bringing some facts and thought to the discussion, as opposed to simply bashing what one does not understand. Your comments have moved us to a discussion of the problems facing alternative energy for transport.

Put in it's most simple context, the issue to date has been cheap petroleum. All other over-the road powered personal transport must compete with the well-developed internal combustion engine model. When gas is cheap and available, it's virtually impossible for other technologies to break in to a market that is VERY tough indeed, both technically and commercially. When oil went to $200/barrel, there was a lot of interest (and money) in technologies that could compete, including algae oil, tar sand oil, wind, solar, zero-point modules, etc. Now that oil is under $40 again, those technologies are, for the most part, back in storage. For students of history, this is NOT the first time this has happened.

Bob is absolutely correct that "We need to retool our transportation modality and infrastructure to be more sustainable and economical."

The big question is how to achieve this. Alt-energy vehicles are not yet competitive TODAY, overall, with gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles. Full stop. Full electric is OK if you never need air conditioning or heating, you never need to carry or tow anything, and the farthest one can drive is about 100 miles before you meet yourself coming back, and you have lots of cheap and clean electricity available. Outside of that environment (wherever it might be), full electrics, and current hybrids, have difficulty competing on functionality, not to mention cost and even "greenness". http://www.meridian-int-res.com/Proj..._Problem_2.pdf. TANSTAAFL, indeed.

In general, people will not pay more for vehicles than they have to. Hybrid/electrics that cost thousands more than straight internal combustion vehicles will not make it commercially. Again quoting Bob Kerns, "And as long as it's based on individual decisions, when individuals don't decide about putting their $$$ into automobile roads vs alternatives -- it will change very, very slowly indeed."

In short, people (in general) are unwilling to make any concessions that will negatively impact their perceived right to a given standard of living. The only solution to that, short of waiting for the oil to become prohibitively expensive or for Antarctica to melt, is to force people to act smarter than, collectively, they actually are.

To achieve anything beyond personal short-sightedness requires government intervention, and leadership. We've had lots of intervention in the last few years, but not much leadership. Maybe the new guy will be better. At least he knows the definition of science and can pronounce "nuclear".

EVERYBODY has an idea of how it should be done. I invented my idea about 20 years ago, and I was thrilled to see that someone else had come up with the same thing recently. Not everyone wants, or can drive a small vehicle (small=less mass=less fuel. Physics rule!) Those who need or want a pickup truck, or a SubDivison SUV, or 400 HP anything should be able to buy it...for a price. That price should include a very stiff "Planetary Harm" tariff based on CO2 emissions (= fuel economy). The tariffs are then used to defray the selling price of small, efficient vehicles. For the most part, the economics of this will push people towards small vehicles. If it doesn't work, ratchet up the tariffs until it does. Big honkers are still available for the bourgeoisie, and those who really need them, but you've gotta pay through the nose to get one. Such is the price of saving the planet.
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Old 02-08-2009, 11:02 PM   #14
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Civicsman,

There are all kinds of perspectives to consider here...

Life a week before whatever recent week you feel this current financial mess blew up was "doing Okay", as you had stated...

I am reminded of a giant sinkhole that swallowed a big part of San Paulo in South America a year or two ago... I am sure that a week before that sinkhole opened up, they thought that those neighborhoods were "doing okay" also... Just because you are not personally aware that the danger is imminent, does not mean there is no danger, and everything is "doing okay".

You made reference to the fact of poor management of mortgages and the structure that they are purchased from and sell in as a small part of this problem, and I do not agree, as this cascade of dominoes was warned by many, and the first of the largest dominoes was the bad mortgage paper that sunk wall street and the banks... Then credit dried up, and people stopped buying almost everything, and that is what is causing much of the rest... You even said that one of my statements sounded like they came from your lord... I am sorry, but my Lord has a different name.

As far as much of this current thread, it has been discussed on this forum many times. Below is a cut and paste of a post I made a year ago from a thread about a UK tax on some luxury cars from March of 08.

As I said, I don't have as much a problem with punitive taxes if they were used to further the infrastructure that allowed for alternatives, but that is not the case...

I have never heard of the government doing anything efficiently, or in a cost effective manner. Collecting huge sums of money in punitive taxes would make government more bloated and wasteful, not do what is being suggested which seems to be an incentive to more efficiency, and less waste.

If a fund were set up with the gas tax, that sponsored cash grants for alternative measures, or for items of that sort, I may buy in. I doubt it.


With the exception of raising armies, and making the roads, we should also remember that governments do not do anything. They cannot do anything more efficiently, therefore. What they spend their time at is taking from person a and giving to person b. Now, if person B is in a situation like they have a big engine car, because they want it, I am not so inclined to have some bloated bureaucrat take time off from his weekends in Washington with his 22 year old, to take my money in taxes (I am the eternal person A) to give it to that guy 'B' so he can take the train...

Now, we already have luxury taxes on big cars. I do not have a problem with having to pay a bit more for a car that is less efficient, but you continue to have to pay more, because it is less efficient. That is penalty enough.

I believe that the problem is a fairly simple one. There is very little that can compare to the amount of energy that can be derived from a simple bucket of gasoline, compared to the amount of energy (And ease of use) to come out of that bucket is hard to compete with, even at current prices...

The amount of energy needed to make things, or make the technology to make the things that offer up energy to replace that gasoline has been so much higher, that gas has been king.

People are basically cheap. If someone came up with a truly more efficient form of energy to replace fossil fuels, the world would beat a path to their door. I am sure it will happen eventually, I hope soon, but to deny the basic fact of the efficiency of what is on the market today is silly.

As energy gets more expensive, alternatives come on line. Punitive taxes, where horribly inefficient robber barons (governments) steal money to artificially inflate the cost of energy we used today to force us into less efficient energies of the future is not a solution to today's problems, but an increase in them...


Now, it is nice for some to come on here and dismiss another's argument and say that they do not understand what is going on, but some of us have stated many times on this forum what our position is, and being new here is not sufficient to excuse not doing your homework before you speak.

For years now, I have been saying that the only real solution to this particular problem of some people wanting an SUV to drive around in is that people think in terms of owning a car. Many people really put a great deal of their image and the feel that their car 'says' about them...

I feel that there is no single vehicle or solution to the average person's travel or commute needs...

I have stated many times that a person such as myself, as an example needs several items...

I live in the suburbs, about 17 miles from the center of Boston, but Boston itself is more than 17 miles from there to other places in town... I have a family, wife and two kids. At this time, my dogs have expired, and my mother in law is no longer living with me, but my immediate family (Live in my house) in the past 5 years has been anywhere from 4 to 8 passengers for a car or the like. I am an engineer, and sometimes carry specialized tools to work, and generally work from home, but do the majority of my work from client locations...

For the commute to work, I need a car as a minimum, with trunk capacities.

For the family trip to see close relatives (5 miles or less) I need something with seats for 4 to 7 people. (We have done this with minivans, SUVs, and cars)

For the local errand or trip to the store. (5 miles or less) I have used any and all the vehicles available to me, in addition, I have used my segway, my bike, my feet, and gone with friends...

For the annual or semiannual trip to the neighboring state, at chrismas with packages, both kids, both dogs, and the mother in law, we need something bigger than a car. Even our SUVs have required the packages to be outside. (when the dogs were in the storage area inside). I have found the best to be a minivan for this trip, and it is relatively efficient as well)

So, I believe that the perfect choice is not necessarily an electric or hybird car. For me that perfect choice (or as perfect as I could make it) is some good shoes, my bike for me, my tandem bike for me and another, my tandem bike plus the extension bike for my daughter, my segway, my small volvo convertable, my wife's small SUV, and my ability to rent a minivan once or twice a year. Add to that I have a utility trailer that I use when doing the Home Depot run (instead of the large SUV or pick-up truck).

Not everyone is willing to have, or able to have all these different choices...

I also did not mention that I take the kids into town on the train at least a couple times a year, not so much because I like that alternative, but because the kids like the train... Still, it is a transport option.

There are lots of things to consider before a solution to the current car infrastructure problems are solved... Forced electric car solutions are not going to do it. There is a major re-thinking that needs to happen first... As far as I am conserned, before anymore of my kids future is ransomed off to GM.
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Old 02-09-2009, 12:01 AM   #15
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Jeez, 1990 was almost 20 years ago! We all know that batteries work much better now than they did then. I think most of the problem is that the majority of people think that electric transportation doesn't exist.

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A Segway owner should have a pretty good idea of the impracticality of electric cars. It takes >$1,500 worth of advanced batteries to power a 100 lb. Segway and a single passenger no faster than 12.5 mph no further than 20 miles or so. And that $1,500 battery wears out in a few years or so. Now extrapolate that cost to moving a 2,000 lb vehicle with a much greater payload traveling at much higher speeds for much greater distances. It's no coincidence that the first mass-produced electric vehicle (Tesla) costs over $100K. A mandate that all cars must be electric would immediately put every automaker out of business because nobody would be able to afford their product.
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Old 02-09-2009, 01:03 AM   #16
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...
It's no coincidence that the first mass-produced electric vehicle (Tesla) costs over $100K. A mandate that all cars must be electric would immediately put every automaker out of business because nobody would be able to afford their product.

Also, we can look at how well government mandates work! The transition to digital television has been in process for over a decade, with an absolute cutoff date of 2/17/09 for almost 5 years, yet as we finally approach the deadline, we have another extension -- because people didn't bother to get ready with 5 years prior warning.

Yep, a mandate for electric cars is gonna work just peachy-keen!!!


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Old 02-09-2009, 01:35 AM   #17
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Now, it is nice for some to come on here and dismiss another's argument and say that they do not understand what is going on, but some of us have stated many times on this forum what our position is, and being new here is not sufficient to excuse not doing your homework before you speak.
Karl,
I think we agree on much, including that one should do some homework before they speak. I wonder, therefore, why you didn't point a finger towards the unsupported "corruption and inept management" statement that kicked off this argument? Unlike some, I've given reasons that support my perspectives.

What you and I appear not to agree on are political views, characterized by, "Punitive taxes, where horribly inefficient robber barons (governments) steal money to artificially inflate the cost of energy we used today to force us into less efficient energies of the future is not a solution to today's problems, but an increase in them... ". Sounds Libertarian, maybe with a hint of anarchism. Whatever floats your boat.

Like I said, everybody has a solution. Mine was only one approach. However, I'm pretty sure that "stay the course" is going to get us all in a LOT of trouble, and people will NOT do the "right thing" by themselves, unless it happens to coincide with what makes life easier for them. If your "robber barons" don't force energy efficiency and clean energy on the unwashed masses in some manner, and in the near future, the economic system will become even more unstable, hunger will become much more prevalent, and the planetary environment will go down the tube. However, I agree that forcing people to electric cars now will not be useful. As you addressed your most recent post to me, did you think I was suggesting that, or did that comment relate to an earlier post?

Finally, I don't consider it my responsibility to search back through archives to find what you or anybody else might have said on any given subject a year ago. I consider "doing homework" as finding (and posting) facts that support my perspective, not parsing through old posts for other opinions.
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Old 02-09-2009, 02:18 AM   #18
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This is one of my "Duh!" moments. If these car companies had any decent accountants they would have figured out what was going on months ago!

I would require the 'Big 3' car companies to only make electric cars - or at least to not make any cars that run on gas. Make all of them take the same size batteries - getting the gas stations to add a battery swapping station too.

I think that then Segway sales would soar!

Glenn
"I would require...", hmmm.

If you are considering a fascist takeover of American industry in order to increase Segway sales, why not just dictate that each household purchase one Segway per member over the age of 2? Anything short of forcing people to buy Segways at gunpoint leaves open the option to buy a more efficient transportation alternative, say an electric assist bike.

Personally, I'm still a big proponent of democracy and capitalism. Let the people decide. Libertarianism with a hint of anarchism floats my boat.
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Old 02-09-2009, 02:39 AM   #19
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"I would require...", hmmm.

If you are considering a fascist takeover of American industry in order to increase Segway sales, why not just dictate that each household purchase one Segway per member over the age of 2? Anything short of forcing people to buy Segways at gunpoint leaves open the option to buy a more efficient transportation alternative, say an electric assist bike.

Personally, I'm still a big proponent of democracy and capitalism. Let the people decide. Libertarianism with a hint of anarchism floats my boat.
I think the issue here is that these companies want our taxpayer dollars. I think the Libertarian answer is either "no!", or "OK, what are you going to give us.", with a strong bias toward the former.

"Make them not make gas cars" is an investment decision, not facism. I don't think just giving them dollars does anything but change the setpoint on the process of collapse. That might cushion a few jobs here and there, but it won't sell cars, and won't revive an industry, especially not one that has been resistant to change.
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Old 02-09-2009, 02:58 AM   #20
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Wow, JohnM volunteering to be what I have been characterized as!...

In this case he is right. Government, more specifically too much government, is much more likely to be a problem than a solution.

Civicsbudy... Socialism is not the solution. If you feel so enlightened that your personal vision of the way the world should work and should be forced upon the 'unwashed masses', maybe you should run for office. By the way, socialism is voluntary. Forcing it upon these masses for their own good, as you say needs to be done, is communism. It has been tried, and it does not work.

You can do what ever you like, and educate yourself as much or little as you like, but you did say that many who did not agree with you were simply bashing what they did not understand.

My post from a year ago was specific to the question of that day, but you indicated that you were introducing that cheap energy comparatively from fossil fuels was the reason we do not use other forms of energy, and I simply found one of the posts where I had said exactly that... Some of my post was out of context to this exact point in this thread, but my words still ring true... Artificially raising the cost of something thru punitive taxes does not work. If it did, no one would smoke cigarettes. Often what it does is hurt the lower economic ranks more than the rest, that is all.

Some people who do not agree to larger government and the concept that the government is the solutions to all problems in society are not just bashing that which we do not know, but instead are re-affirming the very reason that the United States has been successful for so long... The very social structure for the last several hundred years has been to reward the industrious, and the risk taker. That is the American dream. It is the reason that others who are willing to work hard, and take their chances, have been willing to risk it all to give up their homelands and come here, legal or otherwize, for generations...

I happen to feel that the majority of people will do what makes sense. They have no desire to waste, or to be irresponsible to the envornment. However, neither do they wish to spend more than they need, either in money nor inconvenience... Therefore, it makes sense if you want to entice them to do a thing, you need to make it easier to do, and cheaper.

That is what car companies have done. Since they were introduced, it has taken less and less of an average wage earners annual salary to buy a car.

That is what computer companies have done. They get cheaper and faster and easier to use, with each generation... And they are faster than rabbits, and seem to have a new generation every 3 months.

That is what energy smart designers will have to do to sell it to the masses. That is the way the world works. And it will. Forcing a false event by tariffs, or taxes, or luxury taxes simply do not work. Never have in the long term, will not start now.

I surely do not look forward to when a faceless personality on the internet can dictate what will happen to me and my family in the restriction of my choices of transport or anything else... Expressing an opinion, fine. Dictates, no.
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