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Old 02-19-2015, 12:23 AM   #21
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Marketing was a part of the pricing equation, but obviously we couldn't set the price according to what we thought we'd sell it best at without taking into consideration the BOM. You cannot divorce pricing from production realities.
I agree completely with the latter, but once you get estimated product costs you can estimate price at a range of anticipated volumes. If your market analysis is any good, you should then have a reasonable handle on the effect that the required price will have on sales. I'm saying that it's highly likely that the analyses were "happy", estimating higher sales than actually transpired, or lower product costs, or both. Maybe "very happy".

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And it's not true that every product makes sense at only price points. There are many luxury goods that make little sense at their price point, yet still have a market.
You're not using "makes sense" in the proper context. Let's take a super luxury item, such as a $100 million yacht. The question is whether spending $100 million on a yacht makes sense to the prospective buyer, instead of spending $200 million on the exact same vessel. Obviously, there still is a relationship between product and price, even though it might be on a level that neither of us thinks "makes sense".

I'm certain that there must be exceptions to the "makes sense" rule, but Segway ain't one of them.

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Failed product marketing is in no way an adequate or complete explanation for the failure of the Segway to gain the traction it had hoped in certain markets. It feels like a simplistic, sloppy excuse for the complicated story of why the Segway failed. I'll agree now that product marketing may have been a part of that failure, but it in no way explains it alone.
Again, I agree with the latter statement, but this thread was about the Forbes article. Early market analysis is a critical part of understanding whether your product can be successful.

With regards to your position at Segway, I don't understand the coyness. I searched for a bit, and could find only "webmaster". Did you hold other positions?
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Old 02-19-2015, 07:51 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Civicsman View Post
With regards to your position at Segway, I don't understand the coyness. I searched for a bit, and could find only "webmaster". Did you hold other positions?
He has a bio in his profile...
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Old 02-19-2015, 02:13 PM   #23
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Please don't take this thread off-topic by discussing the posters who are posting to it. We all are entitled to our opinions regardless of our backgrounds. Thank you.

Early market analysis isn't always good enough or accurate to determine the value or potential success of your product. Again, the marketplace is littered with examples of products from successful companies who did good market analysis ahead of time and the product still failed.

Launching a brand new product *category* (motorized personal transportation that wasn't a vehicle) is a whole different ballgame. And that made it especially difficult for Segway.

But sure, by all means, stick to the simplistic explanation. It explains it all just perfectly.

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Old 02-20-2015, 11:17 AM   #24
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But sure, by all means, stick to the simplistic explanation. It explains it all just perfectly.
Never wrote that, or even suggested that the market analysis failure was the only reason for Segway's failure to succeed.

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Again, the marketplace is littered with examples of products from successful companies who did good market analysis ahead of time and the product still failed
All other things being equal, show me a product that hit the marketing targets, including product features, quality, price, and launch window, and still failed, and I'll show you a failed market analysis. The whole idea of a market analysis is to "read the tea leaves", John. If marketing doesn't get it correct, then marketing failed. It seems that you don't agree with that.
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Old 02-20-2015, 12:17 PM   #25
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I disagree, and will leave it at that, as this continued conversation is fruitless. There are many reasons for a company's products failure, and you can't put it all onto one department or a single department's leadership.

A marketing analysis was done, a marketing plan was put into place, it was executed upon (you can argue whether the execution was adequate or ideal), and it didn't work. But that alone does not explain why the product failed to produce the quantity sales that were initially projected to investors.
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Old 02-20-2015, 05:26 PM   #26
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There are many reasons for a company's products failure, and you can't put it all onto one department or a single department's leadership.
I agree with that.

However, Segway set the pricing when Gen 1 was introduced, and I'm not aware of any significant manufacturing limitations, or quality control problems (The Gen 2 software problem was still four years in the future). Product costs for any product are relatively easy to determine, if you know the volume (which may be the issue, as Segway leadership clearly had "big eyes"). Essentially, the product was "as expected".

I'm still looking for any evidence that Segway's pre-investment market analysis was even reasonably accurate.

If Segway's own market analysis was accurate, forecasting an 8K per year average sales volume average, over YEARS, would investors have kicked in tens of millions of dollars? Investors do their own due diligence, but if Segway's own analysis had said, "never more than about 10k per year", we would all still spell it segue.
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Old 02-20-2015, 09:54 PM   #27
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Is it at all possible that once DK got his mind wrapped around a 2 wheeled, self balancing, human transporter that no amount of market analysis was going to stand in the way of full production?
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Old 02-20-2015, 10:08 PM   #28
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Is it at all possible that once DK got his mind wrapped around a 2 wheeled, self balancing, human transporter that no amount of market analysis was going to stand in the way of full production?
I think that is a likely contributor. It certainly wouldn't be the first time a high-profile individual swayed thinking.

Dean Kamen was clearly infected with the thought that his machine would change the world. He had a high profile as a capable inventor (well-earned, in my opinion), and he was willing to put his own money in up front. I sincerely doubt there were many at Segway in the early days who would have been willing to seriously dispute the "vision of the future", which was what the company was all about, after all.
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