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Old 12-14-2005, 10:24 AM   #41
spacebatman
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Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Dragan

...point was more based in the legitimacy of the proposal...
my proposal is for "PRIVATE" that, usually, spend their money as they want and like, without think if how they spend money is good for the rest of the world or not... big yachts, big mansions, etc. etc. etc.

a private company can launch a low cost moonrover for the price of a few TV commercials... but the prestige and media coverage of a moonrover launch is 1000 times better!!!

but the race is NOT only a "moon game" or a "moon reality show"... the low cost technology may be used for many scientific moonrovers launched from privates, universities and space agencies around the world to accomplish a complete exploration of the moon as explained in my "VME" webpage www.gaetanomarano.it/moonrovers/moonrovers.html so, it absolutely will be not a waste of money



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Old 12-14-2005, 11:16 AM   #42
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Quote:
quote:Originally posted by spacebatman

Quote:
quote:Originally posted by dgbint

Sounds so simple !

When you build stuff that has to be reliable, it costs a whole lot more.

Aircraft grade stuff costs many times normal consumer grade prices.
The consequences of gear not working are so dramatic.

Well space grade stuff it even more so !
How much would it cost to send a service technician to the moon ??

I guess that the real numbers would be prohibitive.
My 2c worth anyway.

Michael
many universities and little companies ALREADY build and launch micro-satellites at very low cost

the most important part of each mission will be the earth to orbit flight, but it is "included in the price" of all rockets... you give the "box" and they will launch it to the orbit you want

the launch from earth orbit to moon may be easy with the same low cost engines and technology used with hundreds geostationary comm satellites

the lunar landing will need some research but an airbag-like landing may be simple and low cost

about moon repair... the strategy of my idea of VME (see its page on my website) is completely different from past rovers' strategy

NOT a few, very high priced, "perfect" rovers, but, HUNDREDS reliable and very low cost rovers!

if we send four $100 million each "perfect" rovers, they MUST work!

but, if rovers will cost $500,000 each, we can send dozens rovers with each rocket, so, if 30% of them will fail, the 70% that work well may explore the entire moon surface

about moonrovers' prize competition... I think that the "first prize competition" may need only a "safe moon landing and a few days of 3D images", we can't want too much from first missions

next, when we will have more experience, more complex competitions can be made


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I don't understand your logic of sending 'hundreds' of under-engineered rovers, accepting that many will fail, but some will survive. (Kinda like sending a dozen Qs vs. one HT.) That's terribly wasteful, both in terms of the cost to transport many times the weight, and in the amount of junk left behind. Why not engineer it right the first time and send one?

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Old 12-14-2005, 04:08 PM   #43
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Quote:
quote:Originally posted by terryp

I don't understand your logic of sending 'hundreds' of under-engineered rovers, accepting that many will fail, but some will survive. (Kinda like sending a dozen Qs vs. one HT.) That's terribly wasteful, both in terms of the cost to transport many times the weight, and in the amount of junk left behind. Why not engineer it right the first time and send one?
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because the difference of price of a "perfect" rover vs. a "good" rovers is not "half", but "1/100th"

the total cost of NASA mars rovers Spirit and Opportunity (all inclusive) was $800 million

the NASA plan for moonrovers will cost $400 million with probably only four rovers launched

if you build moonrovers with military-grade parts instead of NASA standards, they may cost less than 1,000,000 each but you must accept that part of them will fails or work for less time than planned

moon is too big to explore with four rovers, it need hundreds rovers (with different "generations") to explore

100 "perfect" rovers at $100 million each = $10 billion

140 "good" rovers at $1 million each = $140 million

despite 30% of them will fail, the "medium" cost of each "good" rover will remain LOW... less than $1.4 million each

the cost of the launch for each "perfect" or "good" rovers is the same (around $30 million up)

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Old 12-14-2005, 04:31 PM   #44
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I surrender! Break a leg! Wave when you get there!
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Old 12-15-2005, 04:31 PM   #45
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Using your numbers, and a cost of $30 mil for each launch, if you need 140 good rovers to do the job of 100 better rovers, wouldn't you have to add the cost of the extra launches and system support for each of the failed or expected to fail rover to the end cost?

I could buy 5 or 10 q's for the cost of my 'E' but they will never be able to do what my seg does. I may not fall each time I ride the 'q', but I will need to be prepared to each time. I would rather have one seg than 10 'q's


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Old 12-15-2005, 06:54 PM   #46
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Quote:
quote:Originally posted by KSagal

...Using your numbers, and a cost of $30 mil for each launch...
100 working rovers on 140 launched is only a pessimistic evaluation

99% of good designed moonrovers (with moon temperature specs) may works well like "perfect" rovers

the two mars rovers was expected to work a few months but they are still alive!

1st generation (image & travel only) moonrovers will be very little and light so can be launched with little and (relatively) low cost rocktets like Pegasus (1000 lbs. payload at 13.5 million per launch)

launch 100+ moonrovers may need only a dozen of mid-rockets with 10-20 rovers per launch

consider that 100 "perfect" NASA moonrovers need over $10 billion, so, all costs of private rovers will be cheaper


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Old 12-15-2005, 11:08 PM   #47
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I find it interesting that you can give very specific and detailed numbers and details on devices that have yet to be specified, designed nor built.

Even Nostradomis was not that good.

Karl Ian Sagal

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Old 12-16-2005, 04:54 AM   #48
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"...that have yet to be specified, designed nor built..."

we are only in the early days of this project... it need much time and work


"...Even Nostradomis was not that good..."

but send rovers on the moon is not a disaster prediction


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Old 12-16-2005, 10:28 AM   #49
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about costs evaluation... my first job was in electronics... after (and to-day) computers... so, I've some knowlendge about components, costs, etc.

about rocket launch... their prices are well known, see www.ksc.nasa.gov/facts/faq13.html

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Old 12-16-2005, 02:53 PM   #50
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- - - moonrover cost and minimum prize amount - - -

in these days I've evaluated the (possible) cost of a simple moonrover launch and the minimum amount needed for the 1st race price (moon travel & 3D images)

a simple 200-300 lbs. moonrovers may cost:

- $13.5 million for a Pegaus launch
- $0.5 million for a simple moonrover
- $5 million for the trans lunar injection engine and tanks (and moon braking)
- $1 million for the marsrovers-like moon landing airbags

then, a $20 million budget may be sufficient

but moonrovers' race competitors DON'T NEED to invest all this money

the only need to build the rover and test them in labs to verify if rovers may land and work on the moon (search for launch will be only the second-step)

the X-prize competition (for sub-orbital flight) was only $10 million but the winner of the prize have spent $30 million to build the SpaceShipOne

then, $10 million may be sufficient for the 1st moonrovers' prize competition

but I hope to find sufficient sponsors to reach a $20+ million prize, so, the winner will have (both) a great prestige and a TOTAL REFUND of the money spent to design and launch the rover!


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