Cars aren't selling...

[Civicsman]

ZPM's are the size they are because of the shielding, as a "small" singularity isn't any smaller than a "large" singularity. Power cells for small mobile platforms might be a little smaller because of reduced space needed for tapping the power.

Unfortunately, the technology isn't ready for mass production, but with sufficient investment, it could be ready soon.

[KSagal]

Originally Posted by Civicsman

ZPM's are the size they are because of the shielding, as a "small" singularity isn't any smaller than a "large" singularity. Power cells for small mobile platforms might be a little smaller because of reduced space needed for tapping the power.

Unfortunately, the technology isn't ready for mass production, but with sufficient investment, it could be ready soon.

How about a straight answer? Fantacy or reality?

[KSagal]

Originally Posted by Civicsman

Speculation. Are you arguing that what is needed to recover from a systemic collapse of confidence is the same as what is needed to prevent a systemic collapse of confidence? You're an engineer, Karl, so you know the energy expended to make control corrections is small, if done early enough. Once things get moving in the wrong direction, it takes much more energy to set it right.

What we know for certain is that there was a huge economic collapse starting around 1930. The US Government official took a "let the chips fall where they may" policy for several years, along with enacting protectionist tariffs. During this time, the situation got MUCH worse, bottoming out in around 1933. It dragged on for more years, and it didn't end until the war economy of WWII kicked in. These are facts.

The $700 billion TARP spending of October kept us from the falling into the chasm of banking system collapse. Nothing more.

I'm not happy with where some of that money went, and I hope we get most of it back. Nevertheless, I am convinced that we would all be much worse off if it hadn't been done. We've wasted that kind of money in Iraq without even a kick from the public. Why not spend it on saving our own butts?

We're all still on the edge of that chasm, and we can still go either way. The government is now trying to create a stimulus plan that will give borrowers and spenders enough confidence to take a step back from the brink.

I am not arguing at all that the same energy needs to be applied after a collapse than would have been needed to avoid it, I agree with your engineering parallel.

I am arguing that doing more of what caused the collapse is not going to undo it. Spending too much money as the government has done, which requires huge amounts of borrowing, which causes more debt in the service of that huge debt, and robs the free market of available credit.

There is nothing being tried now that was not tried in the 30s but the entire decade of the 30s was in that depression. The war ended it, not the government spending on non-productive give-aways. Frizbee golf courses and endowments for the arts are nice, but not going to get us out of this current problem.

I recall a politician saying during his campaign that he will not further the politics of fear, yet he is now saying that we must pass this ransom on our children because of this imminent danger we are in... This was supposed to be the administration of change, yet we are doing the exact same thing that George Bush said and did a few months ago... If it were not for the fact that Barry seems to be able to actually pronounce the words he uses, one could think it was still George talking...

I believe that the government grew too much, spent too much money, and did not allow the banks to loan money only to those who could pay it back, and that is the core of what went wrong. Unless the government fixes those things that got us here, we will not go anywhere else...

First rule when you find youself in a hole... Stop digging.

[Civicsman]

Fantacy or reality?

I've said too much already....

[KSagal]

Originally Posted by Civicsman

I've said too much already....

Some, not me, may agree.

It is sad when some cannot tell reality from fantasy...

[GlennO]

Fantasy, for sure, but I have hopes that someday we will get something similar to it. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that these ZPM's were nuclear powered...

At any rate, if we did start to go electric new research would churn out better and better models in just a few years. The funny part would be that our need for gas would go down, which would sort of force the oil-producing countries to lower their prices.

Glenn

[KSagal]

Originally Posted by GlennO

Fantasy, for sure, but I have hopes that someday we will get something similar to it. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that these ZPM's were nuclear powered...

At any rate, if we did start to go electric new research would churn out better and better models in just a few years. The funny part would be that our need for gas would go down, which would sort of force the oil-producing countries to lower their prices.

Glenn

They are an undefined device from a fictional reality. I would have guessed an anti-matter core, as that is a popular fictional power source, so nuclear maybe, but anti matter just the same.

Perhaps they have a bit of black hole dust in them... I would imagine a little dab will do ya...

[Civicsman]

It is sad when some cannot tell reality from fantasy.

I couldn't agree more, but I wasn't the one who had to ask "Fantacy or reality?".

Singularities are beyond the understanding of existing physics, and hence beyond control of any of our technologies.

Too bad some can't tell the difference between obvious humor and reality.

[Bob.Kerns]

Originally Posted by KSagal

I am not arguing at all that the same energy needs to be applied after a collapse than would have been needed to avoid it, I agree with your engineering parallel.

I am arguing that doing more of what caused the collapse is not going to undo it. Spending too much money as the government has done, which requires huge amounts of borrowing, which causes more debt in the service of that huge debt, and robs the free market of available credit.

There is nothing being tried now that was not tried in the 30s but the entire decade of the 30s was in that depression. The war ended it, not the government spending on non-productive give-aways. Frizbee golf courses and endowments for the arts are nice, but not going to get us out of this current problem.

I recall a politician saying during his campaign that he will not further the politics of fear, yet he is now saying that we must pass this ransom on our children because of this imminent danger we are in... This was supposed to be the administration of change, yet we are doing the exact same thing that George Bush said and did a few months ago... If it were not for the fact that Barry seems to be able to actually pronounce the words he uses, one could think it was still George talking...

I believe that the government grew too much, spent too much money, and did not allow the banks to loan money only to those who could pay it back, and that is the core of what went wrong. Unless the government fixes those things that got us here, we will not go anywhere else...

First rule when you find youself in a hole... Stop digging.

Here's how I look at it:

The WORST thing we could do right now is have a large contraction of government spending. That will just accelerate things and pull the rug out from under the economy. Even if you think that's what should happen in the long run, I think you can agree that a lot of collateral damage can be done if done badly at a critical point in time.

The SECOND worst thing we could do right now is try to spend our way out of the mess. Even if it succeeds, the cost will be horrific, and born by our children.

The THIRD worst thing we could do right now is to do nothing. Masses of unemployed people and a seriously messed-up economy can lead to some seriously frightening scenarios -- from the simple economic -- all those unemployment/welfare/healthcare costs falling onto a government with a reduced tax base -- to the horrific. Remember Germany after WWI? Societies make stupid, horrible choices in desperate times.

But as I've pointed out before, a recession is a good time to tighten belts, and to invest. Belt tightening means, taking a good look at your use of resources, and conserving, trimming things that aren't really productive.

Investment means exactly that -- looking for an ROI. More resources are available (idle people, plants, materials, etc.) at a lower cost. What's missing is capital. Capital has fled. Tried to get venture capital lately?

The only available capital at the moment is in the hands of the Federal government. Even that is sort of iffy and fake, being of a borrowed/stolen nature. But it's all we have (and borrowed/stolen taxes are nothing new, at least).

The trick is to invest in ways that entices the rest of the capital to come back into play.

We're not going to know how this turns out for a long time, I'm afraid. Whatever choice we make is going to be risky.

But we should be judging our choices based on what we think will be the outcome. What sort of economy will we be leaving for our children?

(Note: My introduction of the phrase "borrowed/stolen" isn't intended as an anti-tax gibe. Rather, if you're trying to fix the economy, taking away $ now, or borrowing it and taking it away later, is working against your goals. To make sane decisions, you have to consider it Other People's Money, and like the board of a company, you have a fiduciary responsibility, to the Shareholders/Taxpayers. Too often it's treated as a tool to hand out to achieve re-election, in ways that make no sense. Medicare Part D, anyone?)

[Civicsman]

What's missing is capital. Capital has fled. Tried to get venture capital lately?

The only available capital at the moment is in the hands of the Federal government....

The trick is to invest in ways that entices the rest of the capital to come back into play.

Bingo! Tried to get ANY loans lately?


The name of the game right now is confidence in the economic system. We need to get lender confidence and public confidence back up to the point where they put their money in play. We've only got 7% unemployment, yet spending is down massively, and loans (both private and commercial) are still very difficult to obtain. Individuals and companies are being very conservative because of fear that it could get worse.

I'm hearing a lot about things we should NOT do, but very little about things that we SHOULD do to get this engine cranked up again.

Bob, since there isn't a current suggestion for cutting back on federal government spending (as far as I know), I think your your #1 Worst Thing We Could Do comes off the board.

This moves "Spending our Way Out" up to #1. I think you'd get some agreement on this board that this should be #1. However, consider that there has already been a real cost of TRILLIONS of dollars in net worth in the US due to the fall of confidence. There could be much more. Is it it worth spending some money to prevent those real losses? Consider also the loss in tax dollars and the increased outflow in public assistance. In addition, the time cost of money makes spending in today's dollars relatively cheap to repay tomorrow. At a modest 3% rate of inflation, $1 today becomes $0.50 in 20 years, and that doesn't consider increases in the GDP.

Will spending work? I don't know. Nobody knows. As you say, Bob, there's no sure thing here. However, I believe there is technology and infrastructure spending that will 1. Pump cash into the economy and help restore confidence by demonstrating that somebody is working to fix the mess, and will keep working until it's fixed, and 2. Fix damaged infrastructure that we desperately need for productivity, but is easy to ignore on any given day (roads, power transmission, etc) and 3. Fund technologies that are most likely to provide economic leadership for the US in the future. Clean power, supercooled transmission lines <(FYI Karl, this is not scifi), and hydrogen fuel, just for instance.

Spending on stuff like that yields a payoff for the US, no matter what.

"Do nothing" seems to be the mantra of some here, but I fully agree with you Bob that it's darned close to the top of the "likely to cause a disaster" list.